In October 2020, the Australian government issued 30 invitations for the Skilled Independent visa (subclass 189). In the same system, in December 2022, it issued 35,000 invitations in a single month.
A variation of 1,166 times in two years.
This is not random fluctuation. It's the result of deliberate policy decisions, a pandemic that closed borders, a reopening that created pent-up demand, and a government adjusting the program as priorities shifted. If you're planning skilled migration to Australia, understanding this history isn't historical curiosity — it's strategy.
What is SkillSelect and how do invitations work
SkillSelect is the system through which you register your interest in migrating (EOI — Expression of Interest) before applying for a visa. You submit your profile with a score based on skills, experience, English, and other criteria, then wait to be invited by the government.
The minimum score is 65 points. But having 65 doesn't mean you'll be invited — it means you're eligible. Who actually gets invited depends on demand and the number of available places.
Invitations are issued in periodic rounds, generally for:
- 189 — Skilled Independent: no state or employer sponsorship, high points required
- 491 — Skilled Work Regional (Family Sponsored): for those with an Australian family member nominating a region
State-based cuts (190 and state 491) work differently — states make their own nominations throughout the month and don't appear in central rounds.
2020: the collapse
In March 2020, Australia closed its borders to non-residents for the first time in decades. The impact on SkillSelect was immediate and brutal.
Rounds 2020–21 — subclass 189 invitations
number of invitations per round
Why so few?
With borders closed, inviting immigrants made no operational sense — they couldn't enter. But the program needed to keep running minimally due to legal obligations and emergency healthcare demands.
The most dramatic point was October 2020: just 30 invitations for the 189. Thirty. The previous month, September, had 350 — and the minimum score dropped to 65 because there weren't enough candidates available to fill even that reduced number.
The 65-point cutoff in September didn't mean it got easier — it meant there weren't enough candidates with higher scores who were in a position to migrate with borders closed.
2021: only healthcare matters
In 2021, with vaccines arriving but borders still closed for most people, the government adopted an approach explicitly focused on healthcare workers.
Rounds 2021–22 — subclass 189 invitations
number of invitations per round
The minimum score rose to 90. In the October and January 2021–22 rounds, the general cutoff was 90 points for the 189 — the highest level in recent history.
But there was logic behind this: certain healthcare occupations were invited even with 65 points, while the general cutoff remained at 90. The system was effectively prioritising who the government wanted — doctors, nurses, physiotherapists — and excluding everyone else.
Occupations blocked by "pro rata"
Accountants, ICT Business Analysts, Software Programmers, Electronics Engineers and Computer Network Professionals were suspended from rounds. The government was controlling the flow to avoid exhausting annual places in occupations that weren't a priority.
Why 90 points? With pent-up demand — people who had submitted EOIs in 2019 and 2020 and hadn't received an invitation — the queue was long. For the 189, only those with very high scores could get through. This created a perception that 90+ was needed to migrate, which persisted even as the situation changed.
2022: the reopening and the 35,000-invitation round
In November 2021, Australia announced the progressive reopening of international borders. In February 2022, borders opened for vaccinated travellers. The dam burst.
Rounds 2022–23 — subclass 189 invitations
number of invitations per round
What caused the 35,000-invitation round?
Two things happened simultaneously in September 2022:
- The government raised the annual migration target from 160,000 to 195,000 places — the largest increase in years
- Pent-up demand from 2020, 2021 and 2022 had accumulated in the system — EOIs submitted in 2019 waiting for years
The result was a single historic round in December 2022: 35,000 invitations, with a minimum score of 65 for virtually all occupations. Those who had submitted EOIs in November 2019 and waited three years finally received their invitation.
This is the "tie break" that appears in official data: the September 2024 round had a tie break date of September 2022, meaning the system was processing people who had reached their score in September 2022 — the queue was two years deep.
What is the "tie break date"?
When two candidates have the same score, whoever reached that score first is ahead in the queue. The government publishes the cutoff date — everyone who reached their score before that date was invited. This lets you know exactly where you stand in the queue.
2023–2024: the contraction and the return of selectivity
The 2022–23 boom was unsustainable. The government pulled back:
Total 189 invitations per financial year — historical perspective
total invitations in the year
In 2023–24, only two rounds were held — December 2023 and June 2024. Total: 13,592 invitations. And the system changed in an important way: the minimum score stopped being universal and began varying by occupation.
This changes everything. In December 2022, an accountant with 65 points could be invited. In September 2024, an accountant needed 95 points.
This points inflation doesn't hit every occupation equally — see the 3-year data mapping by occupation to find out which have saturated and which stay stable.
Points inflation: occupation defines everything now
Minimum score by occupation group — September 2024 vs December 2022
minimum points for invitation (189)
Why this divergence?
EOI demand varies enormously by occupation. IT professionals, accountants and telecommunications engineers submitted EOIs in large volumes. Trades (electricians, plumbers, carpenters) have high demand but a shorter queue — they're invited with 65 points even in the most restrictive rounds.
| Occupation | Dec/2022 | Sep/2024 | Nov/2024 | Aug/2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electrician, Carpenter | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Registered Nurse (majority) | 65 | 75 | 70–75 | 80 |
| General Practitioner (GP) | 65 | 75 | 70 | 80 |
| Physiotherapist | 65 | 75 | 75 | 80 |
| Civil/Structural Engineering | 65 | 75 | 70 | 90 |
| Architect | 65 | 75 | 70 | 90 |
| Clinical Psychologist | 65 | 85 | 75 | 75 |
| Mechanical/Electrical Engineer | 65 | 90 | 85 | 90 |
| Accountant (General) | 65 | 95 | 95 | 90* |
| Chef | 65 | N/A | 85 | N/A |
| Software Engineer | 65 | 100 | 95 | N/A* |
| ICT Business Analyst | 65 | 95 | 95 | N/A* |
| Developer Programmer | 65 | 100 | 95 | N/A* |
*N/A = not invited in the round (no EOIs available or above the round threshold)
The table tells the story clearly: in December 2022, everyone was invited with 65 points. Two years later, tech professionals need 95–100 points to have a chance.
The political context behind the numbers
Rounds don't happen in a vacuum. Each major change had an identifiable political cause:
2020: COVID and border closures
The government needed to keep the program legally active but had no way to process immigrants who couldn't enter. The solution was minimal rounds focused on those already in Australia or in critical healthcare roles.
September 2022: the 195,000 target
In September 2022, the Albanese government (elected in May) raised the permanent migration target from 160,000 to 195,000 places for the 2022–23 financial year. The stated goal was to address the post-pandemic labour shortage, especially in infrastructure, healthcare and construction.
The effect: the government had more places to fill, pent-up demand was accumulated, and rounds exploded.
2023–2024: concerns over housing and infrastructure
With migration running high and the housing crisis worsening, the government came under political pressure to reduce numbers. The target was adjusted to 190,000 in 2023–24 and to 185,000 in 2024–25. The 189 rounds plummeted.
An important nuance
Invitation rounds ≠ visas granted. The 35,000 invitations of December 2022 didn't generate 35,000 visas immediately. The application process can take months. But they created an application pipeline that translated into 32,100 places granted in 2022–23.
2024–25: two rounds, 22,973 invitations — and a paradigm shift
In 2024–25, the government held just two rounds, but at different volumes than expected: 7,973 in September and 15,000 in November. The November round's tie break was December 2022 — meaning the system was still digesting the queue created by the 2022 boom.
The 189 in perspective: no longer the main pathway
One thing the data reveals clearly: the 189 has lost relevance as the main skilled migration pathway.
Skill Stream composition — places granted in 2024–25
places delivered (2024–25)
In 2024–25, the 189 delivered 16,900 places — less than half of the 190 (33,000) or Regional (32,948), and less than 40% of Employer Sponsored (44,000).
Those focusing exclusively on the 189 are overlooking that:
- The 190 has nearly twice the places and depends on state nomination (not a high score in the general pool)
- The 491 has similar places to the 190 and leads to PR in 3 years
- Employer Sponsored doesn't require a minimum score — it requires a job offer
2025: where things stand now
The only round of the 2025–26 financial year to date was in August 2025: 6,887 invitations for the 189 and 150 for the 491 Family Sponsored.
The occupation cutoffs for August 2025 reveal an interesting pattern compared to September 2024:
| Group | Sep/2024 | Aug/2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trades (electrician, carpenter) | 65 | 65 | → stable |
| Registered Nurse | 75 | 80 | ↑ up |
| GP, Medical Specialists | 75 | 80 | ↑ up |
| Architect | 75 | 90 | ↑ up significantly |
| Engineering (general) | 75–90 | 90 | ↑ up |
| Clinical Psychologist | 85 | 75 | ↓ down |
| Dermatologist | N/A | 100 | — new |
| IT (Software, ICT) | 95–100 | N/A* | — absent |
*IT professionals were not invited in August 2025 — no EOIs available or above the threshold
The absence of IT is telling: either IT demand in the pool dropped sharply (unlikely), or the cutoffs would be so high that the government opted not to include those occupations in the round. For tech professionals, this means the 189 is, in practice, out of reach for many IT profiles — the most realistic path is the state 190 or Employer Sponsored.
What could change: reading the signals
There's no crystal ball for Australian immigration — the program is explicitly political. But the data suggests some patterns:
Signals pushing for more rounds
- The Skill Stream on-hand queue stood at 153,351 in June 2025 — growing slightly
- The government faces documented shortages in construction and healthcare
- Federal elections and industry pressure always create room for target adjustments
Signals pushing to keep it restrictive
- Persistent housing crisis — more immigrants = more pressure on rents
- Public opinion sensitive to migration numbers
- The Albanese government reduced the target from 195k to 185k since 2022
What probably won't change
- Occupation-based selectivity is here to stay — a profession-specific cutoff system is fairer than a single cutoff
- Trades will keep 65 — Australia has a structural deficit in these areas
- IT will remain competitive — many global IT professionals target Australia
The timing trap
One of the worst strategies is submitting an EOI and waiting passively. The system works on tie break — whoever submits earlier is ahead of those who submit later, even with the same score. If you have 75 points now and will have 80 in 6 months, it may be worth submitting now and updating your EOI when the points go up.
What to do with this information
If you're planning skilled migration, the rounds history teaches some concrete lessons:
The general score is no longer relevant — what matters is the cutoff for your specific profession. A round with 7,000 invitations and an 80-point cutoff for nursing is very different from one with 15,000 invitations and a 95-point cutoff for accountants.
The December 2022 round of 35,000 wasn't announced in advance. Those in the pool were invited. Those who weren't, weren't. Submitting an EOI is the mandatory first step — you can't be invited if you're not in the system.
The 189 is one pathway, not the only one. For many profiles today — especially IT and accounting with scores below 90 — the state 190 or regional 491 have a better chance of delivering a result in a reasonable timeframe.
The total number of invitations matters less than the tie break date. If the government is issuing invitations with a 2022 tie break, your 2025 EOI is far back in the queue — regardless of how many invitations were issued.
Before investing: calculate your real points ceiling
Historical data is useful for understanding the system. But the question that really matters is more personal: how many points can you realistically score — and what does that mean for your decision?
Many people arrive at SkillSelect with a current score of 65 or 70 and think: "if I take an English course and accumulate more experience, I'll reach the points I need." That may be true. But before committing time and money, it's worth doing an honest analysis of your maximum points ceiling — the most you could score with everything optimised.
How to calculate your realistic ceiling
The SkillSelect points table has fixed and variable components:
| Component | Maximum possible | Fixed or variable? |
|---|---|---|
| Age (25–32 years) | 30 pts | Fixed — decreases over time |
| Superior English (IELTS 8+) | 20 pts | Variable — but hard/expensive |
| Proficient English (IELTS 7+) | 10 pts | Variable |
| Australian work experience (8+ years) | 20 pts | Variable — takes years |
| Overseas work experience (8+ years) | 15 pts | Variable — takes years |
| Australian education (master's+) | 10 pts | Variable — takes time and money |
| Overseas education (bachelor's+) | 10 pts | Fixed (you have it or you don't) |
| Partner with English + qualifications | 10 pts | Variable — depends on the couple |
| Study in regional AU | 5 pts | Variable |
| State nomination (190) | 5 pts | Only with the nomination |
| Regional area (491) | 15 pts | Only if living in the region |
Most people have between 65 and 80 points with their existing profile. Reaching 90 or 95 generally requires:
- IELTS 8+ across all components (difficult, takes time, costs A$500+ per attempt)
- Several additional years of Australian work experience
- An additional Australian degree (A$30k–80k, 1–2 years)
The risk calculation: compare your ceiling with the cutoff
Take the current cutoff for your occupation (table in the previous section) and subtract the maximum you could score over the next 12–18 months with realistic investment:
Gap = occupation cutoff − your realistic points ceiling
| Gap | What it means | What's worth considering |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 5 pts | You're on the margin — worth investing to close it | 189 is viable; submit your EOI and monitor closely |
| 6 to 15 pts | Possible, but will cost considerable time and money | Worth analysing cost-benefit and keeping parallel pathways active |
| More than 15 pts | High risk — may be hard to get there even with investment | Other pathways may be more advantageous; worth evaluating in parallel |
Real examples
Civil engineer, 32 years old, international experience, IELTS 7: current score ~75. August 2025 cutoff: 90. Gap of 15 points. To close it, would need IELTS 8+ (+10 points) and more years of experience — or an Australian degree. Investment: A$2k–5k for English + time. Feasible, but with a real cost.
Accountant, 28 years old, no Australian experience, IELTS 7: current score ~65. September 2024 cutoff: 95. Gap of 30 points. Closing that gap without long Australian experience or a local degree would take years — worth evaluating whether the state 190 or 491 could be more advantageous pathways in the same period.
Developer, 27 years old, IELTS 8, international experience: current score ~80. September 2024 cutoff: 100. Gap of 20 points. IT professionals were not invited in the August 2025 round — the 189 is, in practice, very difficult for this profile in the current scenario. Exploring the state 190 or Employer Sponsored may be more realistic while keeping the EOI active.
When it's worth exploring parallel pathways
A large gap doesn't mean abandoning the 189 — you can keep your EOI active while also exploring other routes. The point is not to put all your resources (time, money, energy) into a single pathway that may not materialise in the timeframe you need.
190 — State Nominated
Doesn't require 90+ pts in the general pool. The state nominates based on its own criteria — often considering experience in the field and local job offers. For some occupations and profiles, it may be a more accessible pathway than the 189.
491 — Regional
Cutoffs are usually lower than the 189 for the same occupation. Requires living and working in a regional area, but leads to PR in 3 years. For many IT professionals, engineers and healthcare workers, it may be a faster alternative in the current landscape.
Employer Sponsored (482 → 186)
Doesn't depend on a SkillSelect score — depends on a job offer. For those already working in Australia or with professional networks, it can be a complementary and more direct pathway.
The decision to invest A$5k–20k in English courses, skills assessments or Australian degrees becomes clearer once you've done this analysis. Not because the effort isn't worthwhile — but because knowing where your points ceiling is helps you calibrate how much to invest in the 189 versus how much energy to dedicate to alternative pathways.
The history in one sentence
SkillSelect is not a mechanical system — it's an instrument of migration policy that reflects the government's priorities at any given moment. From 30 invitations in 2020 to 35,000 in 2022 and back to 6,887 in 2025, what changed wasn't your score or your qualifications. What changed was what the Australian government needed from you — and when.
Understanding this isn't pessimism. It's the foundation for making real decisions instead of waiting on a system you can't control — and for not spending years chasing a number that may never come.
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